We've had a few days to soak in what we've just done in Alberta. We voted in a majority NDP government. That's correct. "Redneck Alberta" went off the rails and went with a non-PC government for the first time since 1971. I've known nothing but PC governments my entire life. It was certainly something few people thought was possible. But here we are. And, as usual, here's a few random thoughts I've had over the last few days when it comes to the 2015 election.
#1. Who did we vote for?
It sounds like a weird question, but let me put it another way: did Albertans vote for the NDP or did they vote against the PCs? I'm sure it's a combination of the two, but I know many people who simply said they were done with the PCs and a change was needed, regardless of whether it was the NDP or the Wildrose. What it also feels like is that there's still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to Wildrose in the cities (have they really gotten rid of their "Lake of Fire" connections?) while the NDP doesn't have many fans in the rural areas (they hate unions, etc). Which begs another interesting question: which party will be able to galvanize both urban and rural Albertans, or is it even possible? As a sub-plot to the "who did we vote for" question, what will Rachel Notley's cabinet look like? There's a lot of new blood in there. That doesn't mean they're not capable. That just means that they are going to have to rely on advisors and other government officials who are already sitting in the legislature to get up to speed, and fast. They have to build a budget and keep things in Alberta rolling. Because with the low price of oil, no one wants a government to do nothing while they learn the ropes.
#2. Calgary Foothills
You have to feel for the people of Calgary Foothills. They went to the polls last October in a byelection and voted for the PC's Jim Prentice. Then they were forced back to the polls in the general election and again, voted for Prentice. Then he took his ball and went home after the loss, forcing constituents into another eventual byelection. Rightfully so, those residents are not happy campers. That being said, I'm really interested to see how each party handles that byelection. The NDP finished second in that race, while the Wildrose would love to make some headway in the city somehow. I'm curious if the NDP runs an "all-star candidate" with plenty of connections to the oil industry, in hopes of electing an eventual energy minister and maybe winning over some of the naysayers who believe the industry is dead with an NDP government. The Wildrose would probably love to find a candidate well-loved in Calgary who could be viewed as trustworthy and can show just how far the party has come. I'm not sure what the PC's do there. But they might have bigger fish to fry, like finding a leader.
#3. Education and health care
The NDP has a pretty daunting task ahead of it. There are a lot of issues left behind by a party that at one point had gotten rid of deficits and debt, but failed to build infrastructure before or during a boom, and is now playing catchup. The one worry everyone should have is that if the economy continues to struggle, will people start to leave? And if they do, are we building all of these new schools and infrastructure for no reason? On top of that, the NDP made plenty of campaign promises which they will be expected to deliver on. They're not going to be able to change things overnight, but I do believe that the two most important portfolios they need to address are health care and education. If they can get wait times in hospitals back to respectable levels and clear up all of the issues surrounding "fat" in the system, they'll turn some heads. Same with education. If they can address the space shortage and deliver on getting some sort of funding formula put together for boards, they will win over a lot of detractors. I know parties aren't supposed to be focusing on the next election, especially after just winning one, but if they clear up some of the mess in those two portfolios, it'll be hard for a lot of Albertans to not re-elect them in four years.
#4. What happens to the PCs, Liberals and Alberta Party?
I'm really curious what happens with all three parties. Plenty of prognosticators are already making predictions about the demise of the PCs, much like the Social Credit after '71. I think it might be too soon to write them off, but they have a daunting task ahead of them. After Ralph Klein, it was kind of expected that Jim Dinning would be the poster boy for the party, but he was beaten by Ed Stelmach in the party's leadership way back when, and that set off a wild chain events that I think wrapped up last Tuesday. The party has always had a "next one" and I'm not sure if they have that right now. Is there an all-star leadership hopeful coming down the line? The key for the party over the next couple of years is to search for that person that can bring the electorate back to centre-right, and potentially unite Albertans, both urban and rural. At one point during the leadership race that was won by Alison Redford, I thought that person was Doug Griffiths (young, new ideas, well-spoken). Do they have that person waiting in the wings? I've thought Manmeet Bhullar, who has handled a number of key portfolios, could be that person. Maybe they need to find someone outside the party, who can claim that they're coming at it with a clean slate. I'm not sure. But that'll be their focus for the foreseeable future. As for the Liberals, they have just one MLA left (interim leader David Swann). Do they keep him on as leader or do they have a new leader not sit in the legislature? Does this re-open talks of joining another party? Maybe he jumps ship to another party and the Liberals disappear? It's a bizarre time for that party. And then there's the Alberta Party. They have their first MLA in Greg Clark in Calgary Elbow. This could be an important turning point for the party. Could an MLA or two cross the floor to join them, much like Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth did when they went to the Wildrose after Paul Hinman won the Calgary Glenmore byelection a few years back? And if they go from a "one-member caucus" to a three- or four-member caucus, does that make the Alberta Party the true centrist party and make life even harder for the PCs?
#5. Self-fulfilling prophecies
There's been a lot of doom and gloom about the NDP taking over in Alberta. People are threatening to leave. They're saying "haven't you seen what they did in other provinces?" While it's hard to ignore their points, there's also a part of me that has to ask "what if this is different?" What if this NDP government (which I think is closer to centre than some of the other examples) is ready to listen to all stakeholders and steer this province back in the right direction, and is more transparent and realistic than other parties? What if things actually end up better in this province? There's also been a lot of attention drawn to the individual candidates. There's a movement abound to get rid of one candidate for questionable pictures on Facebook. Should they have been posted by a soon-to-be politician (or at least someone contemplating public office)? Probably not. But you know what else shouldn't be done while in public office? How about soliciting prostitutes? Or flipping the bird on camera like Ralph Klein did? And then there's the whole "they don't know how to run a multi-billion dollar business" side, as some will argue. I hope these people realize that there are people in the legislature that will help with the learning curve. Will they make mistakes? Sure. You know what I hope happens though? I hope that this new set of politicians will own their mistakes and apologize when they're made. Because there was a previous crop of politicians that never apologized for a no-meet committee, a SkyPalace, government plane debacles and much, much more.
I'm not advocating for the NDP or any other party for that matter. I'm just saying I'm not going to wave the white flag before they've had a day in office. Maybe I'm too much of an optimist. But some people are already thinking of giving up before the game's even started. The NDP has an opportunity to prove that they're different from others in this country and different from other political parties in Alberta. The Wildrose has an opportunity to prove to be an effective opposition and if they succeed, could be buoyed into a position of power in short time. The PC's have an opportunity to re-invent themselves and re-connect with an electorate that has lost faith in them. The Liberal Party has an opportunity to also take a step back and think about how to make themselves better. And the Alberta Party has an opportunity to prove that they are for real and should be considered a party to vote for in the future.
But most importantly, I think Albertans have an opportunity to see life through a different set of political lenses. They've been eating steak and eggs for breakfast since 1971. And now they've ordered pancakes and bacon. Will it be as tasty as others have told them, or will they go back to steak and eggs in a few years?
So many questions. And many, MANY more to come.
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