As a fan of hockey, watching this circus known as the "CBA Negotiations" in the NHL has been about as fun as smashing my head against a concrete wall and stubbing my toes against table legs. This is a league that wants to increase its take in some pretty difficult markets, yet is the only "major league" that has dealt with multiple work stoppages. If the NHL does lockout its players again, it would be the third time since the 1994-1995 season. That year, we saw a shortened 48-game season. Then we had the complete loss of the 2004-2005 season. And now, who knows what 2012-2013 season. But here, my friends, are three of my bold predictions on what the next few months will look like:
#1. A Lockout Is Inevitable
Don't get your hopes up for the season starting on time. Why? Because we heard Commish Gary Bettman use the "L-word" before we even saw the two sides seriously meet. And I use the word "seriously" pretty loosely. If the NHL and the NHLPA were deadset on making sure this season went off without a hitch, we'd see the two sides meeting EVERY DAY. Instead, we're treated to these hour-long closed-door sessions, followed by reps coming out to the plethora of TV cameras and microphone flashes, only to say they're "far apart" and they'll meet again soon. We're less than a month away from Gary's proposed "lockout date". Take what you will from that.
#2. The Season Won't Be A Total Loss
My gut is telling me that this isn't going to be a long, drawn-out process like it was in 2004-2005. I'm thinking we'll see teams reporting back in mid-November. Why? Because there's one event that I don't think the NHL wants to lose and that's the upcoming Toronto vs. Detroit Winter Classic. That's going to be a massive draw with so much on the line. Having witnessed the Calgary event, it is a marketing DREAM and this one will be ten times bigger, with Original 6 teams, spinoff games, and of course, all the merchandise and buzz. The league would be foolish to try to postpone this thing until the 2013-2014 season.
#3. What Have We Learned?
An interesting thing has happened in recent weeks. I've seen a few polls done on who people blame for the labour uncertainty in the NHL. And for the first time, it seems as though your average, everyday person thinks its the owners and NOT the players. It appears they've realized that the players are doing what any other person would do. When someone offers you a boatload of money, you take it. The common theme (which I stated in my previous sports-related blog) in all of the NHL's work stoppages has been (to a certain extent) that the owners need the league to "save them from themselves". Instead of saying "no" to a multi-year, multi-millions contract to Jeff Finger, they sign these guys out of fear that someone else will do it. Right now, the problem is, no one will say "no" to an Ilya Kovalchuk-sized contract. And let's face it, if you, the reader, were offered a 17-year contract worth $100-million, would you say no to that?
As to how this becomes a "bold prediction", I'm going to say that fans are finally going to start turning off the NHL. They're sick of having to deal with labour shortages and publicity stunts and new marketing to try to attract them back. The longer these "CBA discussions" continue, the more the "on the bubble" fans will turn to the NBA, NFL or MLB to spend their money. Or in Canada, maybe we'll see some of the expendable income go to the CHL (WHL, OHL or QMJHL) or the CFL. But I can't see many fans wanting to shell out $100's for tickets, when each time a lockout happens, the value of those tickets goes DOWN. If memory serves me right, MLB got back on track fans-wise because they dropped the ticket prices almost right after the '94 strike. Will the same happen in the NHL this time around? You be the judge.
Am I off-base? Do you think we're heading for an extended work stoppage? Feel free to have your say in the comments section.
And don't worry, I promise this isn't a return to my sports-related blog. But this was one I wanted to get off my chest. We'll be back with more politics and common-sense ramblings in the days ahead.
