What an insane last few days in provincial politics. When I wrote my last blog, I knew the results of the by-election would have a massive impact on the parties. But to see the Wildrose completely self-destruct? Absolutely insane. The floor-crossings have been analyzed over and over again so I won't bore you with my thoughts on it (although I do want to blog at some point about some of my "other" observations at a later date).
No, this time I wanted to have some fun with what's happened in terms of alternate endings. The hindsight game is always a fun one. So here's a trio of headlines that would have changed the space-time continuum:
#1. Jim Dinning replaces Ralph Klein as PC leader
After Dinning edged out Ted Morton in the #1 vs #2 showdown at the PC leadership convention in 2006, he took the party to a massive election win in 2008. His first cabinet was a who's who of the "old guard", including Morton as finance minister, who refused to run deficits despite tough economic times. And despite calls for more money for health-care and threats from health minister Ron Liepert to dissolve the health boards into one "super-board", Dinning kept the structure status quo, stating they needed to buckle up for now and funding would be increased once the downturn was over. Dinning also promised that he would bring in some new blood through his first term to help introduce some of them to Albertans ahead of another election in 2012. And that's exactly what he did. Morton was replaced by up-and-comer Rob Anderson while Liepert was replaced by Raj Sherman, an ER doctor who won over the support of many within health care. As we head into 2015, Dinning has hinted he may not run in the next election, planned for a year from now. A few names have already started popping up as potential replacements, including Alison Redford, who has won over plenty of support for her work in the justice ministers' chair, Doug Griffiths, who has handled a couple of portfolios with ease already, and Danielle Smith, who won her first seat in 2012 and appears ready for a move into cabinet, perhaps to Agriculture and Rural Development.
#2. Gary Mar replaces Ed Stelmach as PC leader (assuming #1 didn't happen)
The leadership race was tight in Round #1 but with only the top two candidates going head-to-head in Round #2, Mar beat out Alison Redford to become the new leader of the PC Party in 2011. Mar goes into the following general election touting his track record with Ralph Klein through the '90's and that seemed to resonate with Albertans. The PC's kept most of the 72 seats they won under Stelmach, giving up a handful of rural ridings to the upstart Wildrose. But they lost a couple of big guns, being Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth. Both had crossed the floor to the Wildrose in 2010 and after Mar won the leadership race, both hinted as possibly wanting back with the PCs, which didn't sit well with voters. Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, a former PC supporter, has also struggled, as she's tried to be viewed as moderate despite pressures from the party to be more Conservative. Rumours have been circulating she's ready to step down and head to the private sector, to give the party more time to get a new leader before a 2016 election.
#3. Lake of Fire doesn't happen
The pollsters got it at least partially right in 2012. They had predicted through the campaign that the Wildrose had a substantial lead, but the PC's, led by Alison Redford, were able to make up some ground in the final week of the campaign. In the end, the Wildrose, led by Danielle Smith, formed the new government, although for the first time in Alberta, it was a minority government. Smith had 38 seats, Redford had 36, the Liberals held on to five and the NDP had four. The first Wildrose budget is a challenging one, and Smith is forced to nearly work hand-in-hand with Redford's PCs on it, as the Liberals and NDP have no interest in backing her to get enough votes to pass it, potentially leading to another election. The first test makes its way through and 2013 ends on a relatively low-key note. But the 2014 budget is a different story. The PCs feel they have made some headway, pointing out some rookie mistakes by the new governing Wildrose, including the inability to deliver on campaign promises, and Redford has a few more people in her back corner. In a desperation move, Smith looks to Raj Sherman and Brian Mason for some backing, but doesn't get it, and the budget doesn't pass, forcing Smith to call another election in May. The PCs win, but the balance of power doesn't change much, as it is still a minority government, the two main parties almost flip-flopping numbers. Both seemingly learned from the Wildrose over-promises and didn't do much of that, leading to a "steady as she goes" budget finally being approved. The challenge for the Redford government heading into 2015 is going to be balancing the books with the price of oil where it is. And there hasn't been much in the way of scandal or intrigue in the legislature, as neither party wants to do anything damaging to themselves. As the year comes to a close, the biggest speculation is coming from the Liberals and NDP, where the talk is of a "progressive coalition" led by new NDP leader Rachel Notley, one they think they can capitalize on by saying they will help the province get out of this stalemate between two "do nothing" parties. And believe it or not, rumours are also running rampant that a few of the more "progressive" PCs are thinking of joining Notley, and depending on how many go, could actually leave the PCs with fewer MLAs than the Wildrose. Stay tuned...
