It would be really easy for me to break down my thoughts and give my two cents on what's happened in the last two years with Alison Redford serving as Premier of Alberta. But as I've said to many people, I honestly can't wait for politicians to get back to the work of governing this beautiful province that I've called home my entire life. But there is one piece of important business that will need to be done over the next 4-6 months and that is to select a new leader for the PC Party, who in turn will become the next premier. And the challenges that lie in even selecting that person, especially for the party, are going to be plentiful.
There are several key questions that are going to have to be answered when it comes to selecting the new leader. Some are obviously large and some are quite small but will still be a part of the grand plan. Here's just a sampling:
#1. Within the party or out of the party?
This is probably the biggest one, as it leads to a few spin-off questions as well. We've already had several names thrown into the rumour mill. Everyone from Manmeet Bhullar and Jonathan Denis to Stephen Mandel and Naheed Nenshi. If it's from within party, how entrenched should that person be? A long-time MLA or a fairly new MLA with many great ideas? And how much support is that person going to get from the rest of the party? That was one of the problems with Redford, is she virtually had no support from the party faithful during the 2011 leadership race and so it was an uphill battle for her right off the hop. Will the "old guard" be willing to back a younger candidate who will undoubtedly claim again that this "isn't your father's PC Party"? If this is an "outsider", how open to new ideas will the party be? And how much change will be too much change if it's someone like a Mandel or Nenshi, who will likely want to change the identity of the party, at least a little bit?
#2. Calgary, Edmonton or rural?
This probably sounds like a rather minor issue but you know that it's going to come up. Ralph Klein was a Calgary guy who rubbed Edmonton the wrong way. Ed Stelmach was a rural guy from around Edmonton who didn't seem to get a lot of support in the south (hence the emergence of the Wildrose, who has a stranglehold in the south). Alison Redford was someone who had strong support in the cities but not-so-much in rural. So is it Edmonton's turn to try to right the ship again? If it is, does that not further distance the party from Southern Alberta (and possibly Calgary)? Is it time to go back to a rural candidate, and run the risk of not connecting with the big cities? Or do you stay in Calgary (the economic engine of Canada) and hope it's not viewed as a slap in the face for the capital? Like it not, there's a divide in this province and the new PC Party leader is going to have to bridge that gap somehow.
#3. What about personality vs. politics?
I've said it before and I'll say it again: optics is almost EVERYTHING in politics. You could be the biggest buffoon, but as long as you have personality, people will like you. You could also be the smartest person in the province, but if you can't connect with people, you're doomed. When you look at Ralph's track record, you'll probably bring up the fact he balanced the books and that he was a "man of the people". But people seem to forget things like blowing up the General Hospital in Calgary, which was a short-term fix with no long-term plan. He was very much an "in the now" leader. Sure it's great that the books were balanced but how much stuff still needed to be built or done?
That's what Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford struggled with. Stelmach was known as "Honest Ed". I actually really enjoyed it whenever he and I chatted but he was widely perceived as soft-spoken and a bit awkward in front of the cameras. He did what needed to be done but without the fanfare. I can't say a lot about Redford as she's the only one I wasn't able to do a one-on-one interview with. Not for a lack of trying though, as requests through her office were either turned down or avoided. But from her time as justice minister, I do remember thinking to myself that she is very smart and willing to do what it took to get things done. She had a plan to make things better and she executed (remember it was her and the police chief's work of cracking down on gangs in Calgary that dropped the murder rate down substantially). But as premier, that work was just never communicated well. Whether that was her call or her office's, is anyone's guess. Long story short: the perfect leader needs to have some personality, but also some smarts to make sure the politics aren't left in the dust.
#4. How long before the next election?
My fourth and final question and this could be a big one. The PC Party is in quite the Catch-22 right now. The sooner the election is called, the more likely you catch the opposition parties napping, but the party's support has been dwindling which may send the electorate elsewhere. You're also facing your own inner-party problems (like finances), and calling an election soon doesn't allow you a lot of time to build your war chest. Wait a long time, and the opposition parties are given more time to prepare their slate of candidates, but it also gives your new leader time to win hearts and minds, plus you get some time to build up your donations. But it also gives the opposition more time to dig up some dirt on you and your new leader. The timing of the next election may very well depend on who is selected as the new leader. If it's someone with a proven track record and seems to be fairly popular out of the gate, it might be good to have an election sooner. But if it's a new candidate, or even an all-star that comes from outside provincial politics, you almost want to spend more time without an election to prove just how good things can be with them at the helm.
And that takes us right back to the initial question of whether the PC Party of Alberta wants to go with someone from inside the party or from outside. I don't know if there's a right or wrong answer to any of these questions. But I get the sense that the party could be compared to a hockey team in the midst of a rebuild. Might be time to detach yourself from the veteran presence in the locker room, pick up a few prospects and draft picks, and hope that they will go out there and work their rear-ends off to get you a few wins. The Stanley Cup might be imminent. But if you play your cards right and work hard, the fans will stick around to watch you rise again.
