By-Election Bonanza

It's hard not to be intrigued by what will happen once Albertans head to the polls for upcoming by-elections. Sure, political junkies might be over-blowing the significance of the votes (myself included).  But Albertans should be keeping a close eye on all of the races.

Let's face it: the results won't only put new MLAs in seats, but will likely set the stage for an upcoming general election and campaign.  And interestingly enough, I think all five parties involved in provincial politics right now seem to have something to lose.

PC Party
Can you imagine if the three by-elections end without a PC party in any of the seats?  Or even less than three?  You have Premier Jim Prentice, Education Minister Gordon Dirks and Health Minister Stephen Mandel all vying for seats.  And if any (or all of them) lose, that would set off quite the firestorm.  Do you force another MLA out the door to get another by-election?  Do you say goodbye to the appointed ministers and name someone from within caucus to move into those spots?  And what if Prentice doesn't win his seat? The perception that he can turn this party around would take a significant hit.  But if they sweep the three seats, it would pretty much an end to the opposition belief that Albertans are "fed up".

Wildrose
I've been chatting with a few different people about this and if one party was supposed to take a stranglehold over the political scene thanks to the controversies surrounding the Redford government, it was the Wildrose.  Yet, they're not running away with things in all the opinion polls (take that for what it's worth, as we all know how reliable they've been recently).  They are in the lead, but some argue it's not as big of a lead as it should be, and it wouldn't take a lot for the Prentice PC's to gain back support.  So what happens if the Wildrose get swept or lose the majority of the seats up for by-election?  Is that a sign that the Wildrose failed to capitalize on the PC discourse?  If it is, who's to blame?  Does Danielle Smith take the fall?

Liberals
I know it was a long time ago, but in the 2007 by-election in Calgary Elbow (yes, THAT Calgary Elbow), the Liberals' Craig Cheffens beat the Conservatives' Brian Heninger to replace Ralph Klein.  Kind of came out of left field but set the stage for a general election nine months later where some people thought the Liberals would make up some significant ground.  They obviously didn't.  But it does prove that an opposition party can win in the riding.  The Liberals do have something to gain here.  A win in any of these races would be massive (and unexpected) for a party that is really struggling to find any footing and could potentially face the loss of a pair of Calgary MLAs to the feds.

NDP
If you look at the history of Calgary-Elbow and Edmonton-Whitemud, neither have been strong spots for the NDP.  Almost always in the single-digits when it comes to percentage of popular vote.  But they will likely head into these by-elections with a new leader (leadership vote set for October 18th).  All four current NDP MLAs are from Edmonton.  So depending on who wins that leadership race, it could set a really interesting tone if they pick up the Whitemud seat.  It would certainly send ripples up both the PC and Wildrose parties in particular and give the "left" momentum.  Although the one thing to keep in mind is the NDP and Wildrose could "vote-split" thanks to popularity and allow the PCs to run up the middle.

Alberta Party
This party is pulling out all of the stops and is being very aggressive in hopes of grabbing Calgary-Elbow.  All you need to do is look at the list of people involved in leader Greg Clark's campaign team.  Many names will be familiar to Calgary political eyes, having been involved in Mayor Naheed Nenshi's 2010 campaign.  You get the sense they just want to get on the political map "officially".  They have had a sitting MLA (Dave Taylor), but he wasn't voted in as an Alberta Party MLA.  They would probably like to see something like Paul Hinman in Calgary-Glenmore, where he won a by-election in 2009, setting a tone and gaining a lot of momentum.  Could this happen for the Alberta Party here, or is it back to square one?

One big question mark that will remain heading into the votes has nothing to do with the parties.  What will the voter turnout be?  In Calgary-Glenmore in 2009, it was 39.1%.  In Calgary-Elbow in 2007, it was 34.6%.  Interestingly enough, the last by-election held in the capital was in Edmonton-Highlands in 2000.  The winner of that vote?  Outgoing NDP leader Brian Mason.  The turnout?  41.9%.

Like I said, it will be interesting to see how each party mobilizes its forces and who ends up the big winners.  Because the fallout could be detrimental to one or more of the parties.