I'm the first to admit I became a little "fired up" during Alberta's provincial election campaign. I tweeted a few things that set off a few supporters from the different parties. Just a few hours after the election wrapped up, I took to Facebook to post a little note about a few observations around #ABvote. I've decided to give you a little inside look at what I was thinking less than 24-hours after the PC's knocked off the Wildrose in what many considered to be a "shocker". Here's the note:
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We are only a few hours removed from what was supposed to be an historic vote. The winds of change were blowing. Things would be different this time around. The polls told us the upstart Wildrose Party would make significant gains. Some went so far as to say they would unseat the ruling PCs, maybe even with a majority. The PCs were riding a little momentum, having not been under the microscope thanks to some controversial comments and a blog by a Wildrose candidate. Some thought the PCs had slid too far to the left and would end up splitting the vote with the Liberals and NDP, giving the Wildrose even more seats. But then something happened. Monday happened.
My mind is a little baffled. I'll admit this whole election was a gong-show from minute number one. For the life of us, we couldn't seem to talk about the real issues. We were stuck in this revolving door of ridiculousness. And it wasn't anyone's fault outside of the individual candidates. You can blame the "lamestream media" I suppose. But we have to report on the positives and negatives. And to me, judging from what I've seen from many, is that the negatives worried more than a few. The negativity really rubbed people the wrong way. That might have turned a few people off, hence why we didn't have a 60% or 70% voter turnout. But I'll get into that in a second.
Here's some observations/hypotheses I have when it comes to what happened tonight:
#1. Voter Turnout
The advance polls saw lots of growth. But when all was said and done, Alberta went from 41%(ish) in 2008 to a whopping 55%(ish) in 2012. Hardly anything to write home about. Why is this number so low? In my humble opinion, welcome to Alberta. And I'm not saying it's the "old guard" not voting. How many people do we have from other provinces and countries who just don't care about politics here? They're here to make their quick money in the oilsands and then take off. For lack of better term, they are transient. I was one of those people just a few years back. I was living in Lloydminster during a federal election and I decided not to vote. Not because I didn't care. But because I didn't feel like I should have a say in an election and help decide the fate of a riding that I wasn't going to be living in for very long. And let's face it: getting educated about politics in a new province isn't top of mind for most. There's also the feeling out there that "all politicians are bad". That likely plays into the thoughts of many others in any province, including Alberta.
#2. The Polls
Every poll had the Wildrose with a lead. Sometimes strong, sometimes not so much. But I think we can officially say that the old school poll is dead. We should have seen this coming after the last municipal election in Calgary. Naheed Nenshi was in third in almost every poll done. Sometimes fourth. But somewhere along the line he managed to pull in a lot of supporters to get the win. Or maybe he had them all along. You see, polls are done with people who have land lines. And if you're like me, you rely solely on a cellphone. Or in my case, two of them. So right there the pollsters are not counting a good chunk of the population under the age of 35 who has decided to do away with the landline. The other thing polls do is give you a sense of the "popular vote". Which is all well and good but so many people try to turn that into a breakdown of seats, which is impossible. All night long we saw the PC's with 45%(ish) support and the Wildrose with 35%(ish). But did that end up resulting in that same split in seat totals? Not a chance. We media types will likely be taking a good hard look at our "poll practices" in the coming days to decide whether or not we should continue airing/printing these relics in the future.
#3. Candidates vs. Leaders
I don't think there's any secret that Danielle Smith has a lot of people enticed with the idea of change in Alberta. But does anyone know anything about her candidates? Probably not. And that's where some of the problem for her party probably came from. You, the average voter, went to the polls and grabbed your ballot and looked at the names and realized that Danielle's name wasn't on the list. And neither was Alison Redford's, Raj Sherman's, Brian Mason's, or Glenn Taylor's. You had a bunch of people that you saw signs for but that was probably about it. So you saw a name, likely with the PC banner, who you recognized and thought "they didn't do that bad of a job as MY MLA" and went about your business. It happens. The Wildrose had a number of untested candidates. Some had never run for political office before. And that can be scary. Old habits die hard. But beyond that, it lead to what some people called "scare tactics". I refer to it as "voter apprehension".
So there you have it. Just a few thoughts on what turned out to be a very bizarre election campaign. I can honestly say I've never covered anything like it. One thing I will say, I hope this election started to get people talking about provincial politics again. Who knows. Maybe we'll have a real race on election night in 2016.
*****
One other thing I will add is that I'm a nerd and on the morning of the election I went riding-by-riding and predicted a Tory minority. I had the Wildrose winning a few more seats in Calgary and around Red Deer and had the Alberta Party getting two seats.
In a future post, I will discuss a big point of contention in my eyes: the "big, bad media". It was amazing to see how many people blamed the media for what happened on election night. The media's also been blamed for the Occupy movement dying and a host of other things. So I hope to put some of the myths to bed next time around. Until then, my friends: stay classy.
*****
We are only a few hours removed from what was supposed to be an historic vote. The winds of change were blowing. Things would be different this time around. The polls told us the upstart Wildrose Party would make significant gains. Some went so far as to say they would unseat the ruling PCs, maybe even with a majority. The PCs were riding a little momentum, having not been under the microscope thanks to some controversial comments and a blog by a Wildrose candidate. Some thought the PCs had slid too far to the left and would end up splitting the vote with the Liberals and NDP, giving the Wildrose even more seats. But then something happened. Monday happened.
My mind is a little baffled. I'll admit this whole election was a gong-show from minute number one. For the life of us, we couldn't seem to talk about the real issues. We were stuck in this revolving door of ridiculousness. And it wasn't anyone's fault outside of the individual candidates. You can blame the "lamestream media" I suppose. But we have to report on the positives and negatives. And to me, judging from what I've seen from many, is that the negatives worried more than a few. The negativity really rubbed people the wrong way. That might have turned a few people off, hence why we didn't have a 60% or 70% voter turnout. But I'll get into that in a second.
Here's some observations/hypotheses I have when it comes to what happened tonight:
#1. Voter Turnout
The advance polls saw lots of growth. But when all was said and done, Alberta went from 41%(ish) in 2008 to a whopping 55%(ish) in 2012. Hardly anything to write home about. Why is this number so low? In my humble opinion, welcome to Alberta. And I'm not saying it's the "old guard" not voting. How many people do we have from other provinces and countries who just don't care about politics here? They're here to make their quick money in the oilsands and then take off. For lack of better term, they are transient. I was one of those people just a few years back. I was living in Lloydminster during a federal election and I decided not to vote. Not because I didn't care. But because I didn't feel like I should have a say in an election and help decide the fate of a riding that I wasn't going to be living in for very long. And let's face it: getting educated about politics in a new province isn't top of mind for most. There's also the feeling out there that "all politicians are bad". That likely plays into the thoughts of many others in any province, including Alberta.
#2. The Polls
Every poll had the Wildrose with a lead. Sometimes strong, sometimes not so much. But I think we can officially say that the old school poll is dead. We should have seen this coming after the last municipal election in Calgary. Naheed Nenshi was in third in almost every poll done. Sometimes fourth. But somewhere along the line he managed to pull in a lot of supporters to get the win. Or maybe he had them all along. You see, polls are done with people who have land lines. And if you're like me, you rely solely on a cellphone. Or in my case, two of them. So right there the pollsters are not counting a good chunk of the population under the age of 35 who has decided to do away with the landline. The other thing polls do is give you a sense of the "popular vote". Which is all well and good but so many people try to turn that into a breakdown of seats, which is impossible. All night long we saw the PC's with 45%(ish) support and the Wildrose with 35%(ish). But did that end up resulting in that same split in seat totals? Not a chance. We media types will likely be taking a good hard look at our "poll practices" in the coming days to decide whether or not we should continue airing/printing these relics in the future.
#3. Candidates vs. Leaders
I don't think there's any secret that Danielle Smith has a lot of people enticed with the idea of change in Alberta. But does anyone know anything about her candidates? Probably not. And that's where some of the problem for her party probably came from. You, the average voter, went to the polls and grabbed your ballot and looked at the names and realized that Danielle's name wasn't on the list. And neither was Alison Redford's, Raj Sherman's, Brian Mason's, or Glenn Taylor's. You had a bunch of people that you saw signs for but that was probably about it. So you saw a name, likely with the PC banner, who you recognized and thought "they didn't do that bad of a job as MY MLA" and went about your business. It happens. The Wildrose had a number of untested candidates. Some had never run for political office before. And that can be scary. Old habits die hard. But beyond that, it lead to what some people called "scare tactics". I refer to it as "voter apprehension".
So there you have it. Just a few thoughts on what turned out to be a very bizarre election campaign. I can honestly say I've never covered anything like it. One thing I will say, I hope this election started to get people talking about provincial politics again. Who knows. Maybe we'll have a real race on election night in 2016.
*****
One other thing I will add is that I'm a nerd and on the morning of the election I went riding-by-riding and predicted a Tory minority. I had the Wildrose winning a few more seats in Calgary and around Red Deer and had the Alberta Party getting two seats.
In a future post, I will discuss a big point of contention in my eyes: the "big, bad media". It was amazing to see how many people blamed the media for what happened on election night. The media's also been blamed for the Occupy movement dying and a host of other things. So I hope to put some of the myths to bed next time around. Until then, my friends: stay classy.
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